A new World Bank report has called for Zimbabwe to urgently enhance its resilience against climate-related shocks, warning that “business as usual is not an option” if the country hopes to maintain economic stability.
The Zimbabwe Economic Update (ZEU), released on January 31, 2025, underscores the urgent need for climate adaptation measures, particularly in the agriculture sector, which remains highly vulnerable to extreme weather events.
Agriculture at Risk from Climate Shocks
Titled “Improving Resilience to Weather Shocks and Climate Change”, the report highlights Zimbabwe’s heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, making it particularly susceptible to worsening climate conditions, especially droughts linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Key findings from the report indicate that agriculture is a major contributor to GDP, exports, and employment, making it a critical sector threatened by intensifying climate shocks. The report warns that failure to take proactive action could lead to a loss of up to 12% of Zimbabwe’s annual GDP due to climate change impacts.
The 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought alone caused an estimated US$363 million in damage and economic losses, leading to a projected 3.2% decline in GDP and worsening the country’s fiscal position.
The Cost of Inaction
The World Bank report stresses that delaying climate action could be costly for Zimbabwe.
“Business as usual is not an option with the cost of inaction high. Climate change could erode up to 12% of GDP annually, while the cost of adaptation is less than 1% of GDP. Every dollar invested in early, anticipatory measures saves up to US$16 in future costs.”
The 2023/24 farming season saw a 60% decline in maize yield compared to the five-year average due to severe drought conditions. This, coupled with high temperatures and reduced rainfall, has led to increased food insecurity and economic instability.
The government’s ambitious US$12.5 billion agricultural target is now under threat as climate shocks continue to disrupt GDP, trade balances, and overall fiscal stability.
Economic Fallout from El Niño
The report details how the El Niño-induced drought impacted Zimbabwe’s economy:
- US$363 million in damage losses
- 3.2% drop in GDP
- Lower export earnings
- Widened fiscal deficit by 0.9% of GDP
- Government revenue decline to 18.5% of GDP (compared to 19.2% in a no-drought scenario)
- Government expenditure rise to 20.9% of GDP (up from 20.6% in a no-drought scenario)
The Way Forward: Climate Adaptation and Anticipatory Action
The report highlights the need for Zimbabwe to move away from reactive measures and invest in long-term climate resilience strategies.
Dominick Revell de Waal, World Bank Senior Economist and co-author of the ZEU, emphasized:
“This has made many Zimbabweans more vulnerable to variability in rainfall patterns. This growing trend highlights the urgent need for Zimbabwe to develop robust strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of these climate variations and better insulate their negative impact on growth.”
Recommendations for Climate Resilience
The report calls for a shift in public investment away from traditional agricultural subsidies toward climate adaptation initiatives such as:
- Research and innovation in climate-resilient crops
- Expansion of irrigation systems to reduce reliance on rainfall
- Sustainable landscape management to prevent land degradation
- Proactive policies that use climate forecasts to guide economic planning
The World Bank emphasizes the necessity of a dual approach, combining climate adaptation with anticipatory action based on risk analysis and weather predictions.
With climate change posing a growing risk to Zimbabwe’s economic future, the report urges immediate action to safeguard the country’s agriculture, economy, and overall stability.
